Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, Myanmar's political situation has been in turmoil.
The situation escalated significantly after the Myanmar military seized control of the country again through a coup on February 1, 2021.
The military's indiscriminate violence against unarmed civilians, including shooting demonstrators, has been widely reported, contributing to the chaos. In border areas, some of the roughly 20 armed groups that have been fighting the government for decades have taken advantage of this crisis to occupy military outposts and weapons depots. In response, the Myanmar military has carried out bombings and sent refugees into neighboring countries.
In refugee camps across the border in Thailand, there is an overflow of casualties from clashes between the military and ethnic armed groups like the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). Rohingya Muslims, a minority ethnic group, fled to Bangladesh in large numbers following a pogrom led by the military in 2017.
The Economist magazine titled an article "Myanmar could be Asia’s next failed state," expressing strong concerns, stating that "Although Myanmar is not yet as lawless as Afghanistan, it is rapidly heading in that direction."
Foreign capital that has supported economic growth has nearly come to a complete halt, and public services are paralyzed.
Since the coup, almost all foreign companies, including Japanese firms, have suspended additional investments, and various governments have halted additional Official Development Assistance (ODA). Businesses are paralyzed due to strikes, and public services have almost come to a standstill.
These developments are having a serious impact on the economy. Before the coup, the World Bank predicted a growth rate of nearly 6% for this year. However, it is now anticipating a contraction of around 10%. Some more pessimistic analysts even expect a contraction of 20%.
Response from ASEAN countries
In such a situation, on April 24, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held an emergency summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, to discuss the situation in Myanmar. Senior military commander Min Aung Hlaing from Myanmar also attended the meeting, where ASEAN member states' leaders urged an end to the violent crackdown in Myanmar.
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore played leading roles in this initiative. On March 19, President Joko Widodo urged Brunei, the chair country of ASEAN in 2021, to convene the summit, and Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong promptly expressed their support.
Given Myanmar's persecution of the Rohingya, an ethnic minority, leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia, where Muslims make up about 90% of the population and Islam is the state religion, appear to have considered both international and humanitarian aspects as well as domestic public opinion. This stands in contrast to the restrained stance of neighboring Thailand, a Buddhist country with de facto military rule, and the Philippines, where Christianity is the state religion.
ASEAN's significance as a regional community is being tested
Calls have also been made from the international community to expel Myanmar from ASEAN to deter the military regime's excesses through economic sanctions. However, expulsion could lead to serious isolation and further exacerbate the country's situation.
In this regard, ASEAN member states have historically avoided interfering in each other's internal affairs. This was due to the mosaic diversity of ASEAN as a community.
Southeast Asia is a microcosm of the world with a mix of the three major religions (Buddhism, Christianity, and Islam) and diverse political systems (capitalism and socialism, democracy or de facto military rule, dictatorship, etc.). This is in contrast to the EU, which was established based on democracy and Christianity as its fundamental political and cultural framework.
ASEAN has been led by a geopolitical proposition that prioritises intra-regional cooperation in the economic sphere to secure external influence and visibility, amidst the rise of China and India and avoiding friction caused by interference in internal affairs.
In this sense, the recent unusual move to hold face-to-face meetings in Indonesia, not the chair country, amid the COVID-19 pandemic where nearly a thousand regular meetings were held online, is noteworthy.
Will ASEAN transition from a loose bond based on interests to a solidarity based on ideals? The future developments are eagerly awaited.
Reference: Economist's article titled "Myanmar could be Asia’s next failed state" and others.
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